Japanese politics fell into the "Warring States era". Who will become Kan Yiwei's successor?

Original title: Japanese politics fell into the "Warring States era". Who will become Kan Yiwei's successor?

According to the information released by the election committee of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, an announcement on the election of the party's head (president) will be issued on September 17 and a vote will be held on September 29, Xinhua news agency
[Japanese media released the first poll on the support of possible candidates for the new prime minister on the 6th, showing that taro Kono, who had always ranked second in support, now leads by 23%.]
Japan's 100th prime minister is probably a newcomer.
"Novel coronavirus pneumonia is not going to run for president of the LDP," said Kan Yi Wei, the current prime minister in September 3rd.
According to the information released by the President Election Committee of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, an announcement on the election of the party's head (president) will be issued on September 17 and a vote will be held on September 29. If all goes well, Kan Yiwei still has the possibility of re-election. But now, with Kan Yiwei's argument of "not participating in the election", it not only makes the countdown to his prime minister's term of office, but also like a heavy bomb, causing political unrest in Japan.
For the upcoming LDP president election, senior politicians in the LDP have begun to "brush their hands". Cai Liang, secretary general and researcher of Sino Japanese Relations Research of Shanghai Institute of international studies, said in an interview with China business that Kan Yiwei's abandonment of the election has led to changes in the inner-party strength of the Liberal Democratic Party, and some candidates who had no intention of running for office have seized the opportunity to rearrange.
At present, all five candidates are interested in running for president of the LDP. Among them, Sanae takaichi, former Minister of general affairs, and Kishida Fumio, former president of the Political Council, have clearly indicated their candidacy; Other popular candidates who have not yet stated their position but intend to run include Kono taro, minister in charge of administrative reform, Ishiba Shigeru, former defense minister, and Noda Seiko, Acting Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Factionalism has always been a feature of the LDP. Among them, the most influential and large-scale is the Hosoda faction of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, followed by the ASO faction of deputy prime minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso. The number of the second-order faction of secretary general Junbo Nikai is equivalent to that of the Ishida faction established by Ishida Wenxiong, both of which are about 40, and the Ishiba faction established by Ishiba Mao is less than 20. In addition, there are Zhuxia sect and Shiyuan sect.
It is essential for candidates to obtain the support of factional and non factional members.
The scuffle within the party intensified
At present, among the five candidates who showed their intention to participate in the election, the Japanese media released the first poll on the support of possible candidates for the new prime minister on the 6th, showing that taro Kono, who had always ranked second in support, now leads by 23%. The above survey shows that he is not only the most popular among the people, but also the most popular among LDP members.
Kono visited Taro Aso, Deputy Prime Minister and finance minister, in the Ministry of Finance on the 6th and reported the situation. Later, he visited Amari Akira, chairman of the ASO Party's tax system investigation, and others in the Parliamentary Office to seek understanding. On the 5th, he also held talks with cadres of the Zhuxia faction.
When asked by the press group on the 6th whether participating in the president election would affect the promotion of Xinguan vaccination, Kono said that "we will make practical efforts not to cause impact".
Kono belongs to the ASO faction, the second largest faction of the LDP. At present, Taro Aso has not made it clear whether he supports Kono's candidacy. According to Japanese media reports, important officials of the ASO faction will also listen to the opinions of other members of the faction before making a decision.
As of the press time of the first financial reporter, Shi Po did not make a clear statement. Some members of the Shi Po faction told the Japanese media that he was still thinking carefully, because in last year's election, Shi Po, who was very popular, was suggested to give up his candidacy, so he was worried about repeating the mistakes. At present, there is a high voice of support for Kono among the stone breaking faction. Shi Po's popularity in the polls is second only to Kono.
In this regard, Cai Liang explained that once the Shipo faction chooses to support Kono, it is an alliance between the two factions. At the same time, coupled with the frequent meetings between Shipo and the second level recently, it indirectly means that the second level faction will also support Kono.
Kishida, who took the lead in indicating his candidacy, has already aimed at local votes and has appeared in the media for days to strengthen information release. Kishida's Kishida faction is the fourth largest faction in the party, equivalent to the number of the second-class faction.
As a city closely related to Abe, although it does not belong to any faction, it has said that it will inherit Abe's economic policy. Noda, who is also a non faction, is working hard to ensure that 20 nominees are necessary for the election.
While the Liberal Democratic Party is busy with the upcoming presidential election, the opposition parties do not forget to take the opportunity to make trouble. The opposition parties have asked Congress to convene a special session immediately, emphasizing that the political vacuum caused by the election of LDP leaders should be avoided. Azumi Jun, the head of Parliamentary Affairs of the constitutional democratic party, the largest opposition party, said the LDP should stop wasting time in party elections.
These three people deserve the most attention
Cai Liang said that among the five candidates mentioned above, the most noteworthy are Ishida Wenxiong, Kono taro and ishinomo.
In addition to Kishida, who had previously participated in the high-profile election, Kono and Ishiba, two "old faces" of the Liberal Democratic Party, had previously remained silent. For example, when asked whether to participate in the election, Kono said at that time that "I didn't consider it. At present, my important task is to call on more young people to get vaccinated"; Stone also meaningfully said, "I am a piece of white paper.". When Kan Yiwei announced "abandoning the election", according to Japanese media reports, Kono's first timetable revealed his intention to run, and Shi also said he would further discuss with his faction colleagues.
Cai Liang believes that at present, Kono has the most obvious advantage among the three. First of all, in terms of Kono's support rate, Kono's polls are ahead of other candidates, both within and outside the LDP, indicating that he has a good folk foundation. Secondly, although Kono's political time is not long, it involves many departments and has experience in defense, diplomacy, internal affairs and so on. "It's not too rich in qualifications, but it's really brilliant," Cai Liang said.
For example, at the beginning of this year, Kono, as an administrative reform minister, took charge of Japan's anti epidemic affairs. While introducing foreign vaccines, Kono also actively called on young people to be vaccinated as soon as possible. According to the data of Japan's Ministry of health, labor and welfare, as of September 3, the vaccination rate of two doses of vaccine in Japan was 47.9%。
Moreover, Cai Liang pointed out that Kono was also born into a political family. His father Yohei Kono was an important leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and served as Japan's foreign minister; His grandfather Ichiro Kono is also a senior politician in Japan. He has served successively as chief executive of the administrative department, chief of the economic planning department, Minister of agriculture and forestry, Minister of construction and other important positions, with great influence.
"There are many fans on social media and he is fluent in foreign languages." Cai Liang believes that Kono "has both international vision and grounding", which are all his bonus points in the current party election.
For Shi Po, Cai Liang said that he gave the impression of Actuaries and old politicians. "Although the logic of his policy concept is very clear and his popularity among the people is not bad, the top level of the LDP does not support him, so it is difficult to make a breakthrough. After all, in the LDP president election, both the local and the central government have 383 votes."
As for Yasuda, Cai Liang said that although the evaluation of all parties is good, the mainstream view in Japanese politics is that he lacks the temperament of elected leaders. Moreover, in this LDP reshuffle, Kishida actually took the lead. He advocated that LDP cadres should implement "one term of office for one year, up to three consecutive terms", and hold a negative attitude towards the re-election of second-order Junbo, Secretary General of the LDP.
For the final election, Cai Liang said that we still need to observe the situation after the 17th. He estimated that once five people participated in the election, it would not rule out the possibility of continuing the election in the first and second rounds; If someone quits halfway, for example, only three people run, the situation will not be too complicated.